A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
